2014

Trading log

Here are my current positions and previous trades for the year 2014. Winning trades where I sold my entire position at once are in green.  Winning trades where I sold my entire position in different batches are in yellow. Loosing trades are in red. Current positions are in white. The accuracy of my trading log is not guaranteed. My trading log should not be construed as trading advice in any way. Trade at your own risk. Last updated: 1/1/2015, 8:15pm PT

trade log 2014
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67 thoughts on “2014

  1. Pingback: Been selling a lot last few days | Intelligent Investing

  2. You mean now wave 3,( 1950 – 2000 )
    Then star wave 4 ( retest 1737)
    Then star wave 5 2000- 2200
    Bull market done
    Ps: wave 3 can finish July ( July good month for market )

    • correct tony!

      wave 3 should ideally target the low-mid 2000s, then wave 4 will retest low 1700s, and then wave 5 will go up to 2200s. and then the current bull-market is IMHO finished.

      that would be ideal.

      I also agree that wave 3 will ideally finish in July, and wave 4 will finish around October this year. Then we’ll get a nice winter/spring rally into 2015 for wave 5. Then a 50% correction into late 2016 before a new bull market will start.

      GL!!

    • hi tony! good question. This is how I see the world:

      OEW is still awaiting minute iv, v, minor 3,4 and intermediate iv and v to finish major 5 of Primary III. Now let us simple assume that each of these waves will either retrace (the 4th waves) and extend (the 5th waves) as much as their counter parts (1st and 2nd waves) of the same wave degree.

      SPX hit almost 1950 today. Let’s assume that’s minute iii, that would then mean (rounded to nearest whole number):

      minute iv :-30 points (1920)
      minute v : +40 points (1960) this ends minor 3
      minor 4 : -30 points (1930)
      minor 5 : 70 points (2000) this ends intermediate iii
      intermediate iv : -80 points (1920)
      intermediate v : +150 points (2070)
      Right in my preferred target area of 2045-2200.

      Primary IV should ideally retrace most of Major 5: down to 1700s (~15% correction!)

      Primary V should then ideally make new ATHs. Considering the market traded through 1800, I would assume 2200s based on the 80/20 rule, which makes sense, before a 50% corrections is upon us that will bring the market back to the 1000s, which is the primary II low area (Primary III and V will be entirely retraced, text-book).

      GL!!!

  3. soul,
    Saw your comments on Tony’s of buying more today on TSLA, GMCR.
    I am concerned because I see internet and momentum growth names might be done.
    Thought you had 5% stop rule, but I do not see you have stop of many of your stocks, that’s dangerous.
    What Einhorn mentioned makes sense, check it out.

    May 7, 2014

    • Hi JK. Thanks and welcome . Yup I have always my stoploss. Haven’t updated my trading log in a longwhile though. Been too busy with other stuff lately… Such is life. Can say I am mostly in cash after having sold many positions for a (small) loss. Such is trading life. 🙂 I will try to update my log soon!

      I am not familiar with Einhorn.

      • soul
        When the momentum growth stock stops going up and falls, it becomes a falling knife.
        Better not to catch a falling knife.
        looking for your update of trading log, then I can response.

  4. Hì soul, i know You fell bad this week , me too
    Spx close 1866 , do You think gap up monday ?
    Spx try hit 1884 , and pull back two time thís week
    I hope gap up next monday
    Have nice weekend soul

    • Hi Tony, yes some confirmation would be nice. I don’t care if it is UP or DOWN, but 3 weeks of chop city and hard to trade stocks is starting to become annoying for sure. As soon as I open my mouth and post something bullish the market takes a dump… or vice versa. It’s been hard to even trade off key break out and support levels, because once I trade the break out it goes down, and once I trade the break down it goes up. Haven’t seen it this bad in a very long time. So I feel I better shut up and leave this mess for now (hence the fewer updates). I am very sick of it too. what a whipsaw frikin city. it has gone nowhere over the past 3 weeks… Now I might as well post a sell signal on the daily SSTOs… sjeeez. Tank or take off please.

    • Hi Tony! I think a retest may be in order this week, then a deeper retrace and then off to new ATHs. The whole move off the 1738 low is just too impulsive looking, barely any overlap. This is how new uptrends start IMHO.

  5. Hi soul, how are you ?
    I sell upro when spx hit 1793
    Did you sell sso, buy sds
    Monday gap be down , do you think so
    Have good weekend soul
    Ps: this week I loose money , I sell my upro 81lose $5 per share
    Buy back 85.21 sell 87.48
    I hope make money next week

    • tony, tough nut to crack; it’s been chop-city all week. DOW made a new low today, which can be counted as either all of c, or as all of 3 of a, with now in 4 (abcde triangle this week!?) and 5 of a down still to come… market will make up it’s mind soon enough (i hope … 😉 )

    • Hi Tony. I don’t know why that is, but when in doubt: get or stay out. So, IMHO, u did well! 2nd: did u make a profit!? If yes: kudos, u won! U did great! 3rd: did u make a loss? By selling u likely minimized it! Kudos! U did well! 4th: remember that if this is most likely a corrective bounce and as such it will be in 3!waves (abc) and the market likely finished a up today. Expect b to retrace 50+% of a (about 14 points; down to mid 1780s) before c starts. C is either a (28 p): targeting 1810 ish or 1.618x a: targeting 1825ish.

      All set and done, I think tomorrow will be a red day: b-wave to burn off the short term OB conditions. The close we may see the start of wave c, when shorts cover for the weekend and the big boys start buying. That’s my game plan, may very well pan out totally different…

  6. Hi soul , I bought goog 1108 after hour go up 29 -1135
    I sell my sds buy upro today ,
    Do you think market rebound tomorrow ?
    Thank you for goog , I will hold until fri
    Thank you very much

    • Hi Tony!
      Nice! Glad to see you make money. I think GOOG will do well tomorrow and Friday (earnings AH Thursday 1/30). Don’t sell too early 😉 (e.g NFLX now at 400+ 🙂 ) I also sold my SDS today. Offset my losses on my SSO. I Haven’t updated my trading log yet, but will likely add more SSO tomorrow. It namely Looks like the market is now in 5th wave down, so it can turn around any time…
      Btw, FB is a buy. Had a buy-signal today but ignored it due to FOMC minutes… Thinking we’ve only seen i and ii of Major 5, target: 80s… Will update my count too!

  7. Thank you soul , I will buy upro after hour , last week I buy more upro 96.20 and I sell 92.07
    How much you think spx correction and we star prim wave 5
    Thank you very much

    • How deep the retrace will be for Primary IV? Hard to say, but I suspect ~10+% Primary II was 22%. A retest of the 200day SMA and 50week SMA are likely in the cards . That hasn’t happened in over 1400 months. They are now at 1700, and 1678, respectively, and rising. I am expecting a decent stab (~50 points) through before price may take off. Note; the weekly pivot is at 1710, so there’s a nice confluence of resistance in that area (1725-1675).

      For now I expect any short-term bounce to be contained by the 1825 +/- 5 area.

    • yes I bought in the close. 96.50s. We may see a quick drop to 1785ish on monday IMHO, but then we should get a decent bounce IMHO. If not, than the market will go in rapid free fall towards 1760/1740…

      I am, however, more and more inclined to say that Primary III topped at 1850.84. This decline is much too fast and furious to be a minor 2 wave (for example the DOW has had it’s worst week for over a year, arguably 2 years) so something BIG is going on, and that can then logically only be a primary degree wave…

      GL!!

  8. I have member , they have signal buy aapl, goog ,
    They have signal sell spx when they hit 1865-70
    But I trust you , your tagget 1900-40 , I will be hold that level and sell all my long &short
    Tna, upro, tqqq , and wait correction 10-15% buy back
    I hold 50% long , 50% short

    • Thanks Tony! And kudos! That was an easy $60+ per share or what!? I am glad I can be of help.

      Personally I think this puppy will go much higher, but taking profits (along the way) never hurts and is a smart strategy to increasing a portfolio!

  9. Hi soul, this is my first time I buy stock since 2008, I buy nflx this morning 326
    Do you think nflx earning tomorrow after the bell good earning
    I see all your stock go up a lot , now I need follow you buy some stock
    Thank you

    • Hi Tony! Late to the individual stock buying party ya!? 😉 earnings are always a bit of a gamble. But, If the count is correct than NFLX is now in intermediate iv, with v up still to go. That will then end most likely major 3 up. Then major 4 down, to be followed by Major 5 up. So yes, if this count is correct than there is plenty of upside left. Technically speaking, the RSI(5) on the daily is showing + div. and the weekly is OS. So that’s good. Price has now also retraced 38.2% of the entire intermediate iii move and is down 16.5% off its latest high. On the other hand, price can go as low as $250 without violating any EWT rule, though I doubt it will get there given the positives in the technicals. GL!!

    • Tony, I haven’t looked in detail at the charts yet, but although a retest of 1815-1820 is possible, the SPX can’t trade below Monday’s low. That would mean the 5 waves up off that low have completed and primary III is in. However , that would just not fit count-wise for the DOW… I’d like to see the 1841 OEW pivot hold (+/- 7) and today’s low may have retested that. Break below 1834 and the 1818 OEW pivot is on tap. But so far, the close looks bullish IMHO especially on the DOW. I let that be my guide.

    • time-wise? probably a month+ for spx to hit 1900-1940. But, that will only be primary III, to be followed by primary IV (expecting a >10% decline) and then primary V. The last wave, primary V, will end the bull market. Probably somewhere august-october this year.

      • Hi Hucky! Welcome! I haven’t actively tracked MSFT in a while; sorry… but in the big picture it looks like it did a clean ABC of the ’99 ATH into the ’09 low: with A down to end of ’00. B up to late ’07, and C down to ’09 low. Since then the ups look impulsive (5 waves) and the downs corrective (3 waves). Can’t give a short-term look, since I don’t have the count dialed. But if it can break out above $37.50 that be bullish. If it breaks down then support is IMHO at low $30s. I hope this helps!?!? GL!!

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