In my weekend update I already said: “So the bottom line is: a break below SPX 2072 means the correction is ongoing and has us count the recent price action as wave-a was from SPX 2135-2072, wave-b up to SPX 2130, and now in wave-c with the following possible price targets: SPX 2065, 2055, 2045, 2038, 2030, depending on the c-wave extension (1.000x, 1.236x, 1.382x, 1.500x, 1.618x, respectively.)”. This was spot on, and the first two targets are captured, with the SPX now at the 1.236x extensions (2055). From a trend line perspective this is an important crossroad shorter term, as is depicted in the figure below. The 200d SMA at SPX 2054 may however act as the logical next lower target and is still within acceptable limits. CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
A break below the 200d SMA will have price target the SPX 2045 level, as that is a) next support, b) the 1.382x extension, c) where the 50w SMA resides (2044, not shown), d) right around the blue (Primary wave degree) 1.382x extension, and as such may -based on the weight of observable evidence!- be a logical target and support. Last but not least, price has broken below the red ascending trend line which has held the downside in check since early 2013, except for the 2014-October correction, where price hit the yellow trend line (support since the 2011 price low). As such the bulls have their work cut out to resume that uptrend, while price remains in an uptrend since 2011. CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
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