As all market pundits know, the NYA is lagging the other major indices in failing to make new ATHs. Instead what we see is a somewhat broadening top, but most obvious on the weekly time-frame are the negative divergences and flat bollinger bands. If history can be of any guide in a QE driven market, then the only time the NYA had a similar set up was in the summer of 2011 (see figure below; click to enlarge).
If we zoom into these two time frames (see figure below; click to enlarge) highlighted by the orange boxes, and compare the price pattern leading into the box in 2011 with that in 2014 then we see a similar patterns: fractals. Could we expect a similar outcome then?
Hard to say, but the preferred count (see below; click to enlarge) seems to suggest so.