SPX update: still channel surfing

The SPX is still channel surfing since Oct. 22nd. Until it breaks down below this channel there is nothing too bearish yet. The waves count well as intermediate v being completed soon. Assuming intermediate i was from 1821, to 1869: 48 points and that intermediate iv was at SPX 2001, then the ideal target is 2049, which is exactly the 1.382x extension of Primary I, from II: 1075 + 1.382×704 = 2048.

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6 thoughts on “SPX update: still channel surfing

  1. Hi Soul

    It appears 5.3 is underway.
    In 2011 P2 cracked open the lower 200 day Bollinger band to the downside. Logically P4 should do the same. Today the current lower 200 day bb is at 1786. Which fits with your 1778 P4 target.

    P2 was a complex pattern? So P4 should be a simple zig zag?
    Once this wave up ends, if P4 is underway and acting like P4 should: it should drop below 1900 as fast as it went up from 1820 and I’d guess somewhere between 1850 and 1900 the A of a P4 zigzag should form.

    • Hi Rob, thanks for sharing your 100 and 200 day Bollinger Band insights. I was not aware of these. I mainly use the 20d but with 1 to 4 stdevs instead. As I replied to Nate, lets see at around 1900 what the market decides to do. From a “max pain”, hurt bull and bears the most, a drop to 1900 would set up that inverse head and shoulders the bulls have been waiting for. However, that would then only be Major a… So at the top of Major b, everybody fat, happy, and long… The bears capitulated, so down we go for Major C!?!? And yes, P-IV should be a simple zigzag: down hard and fast!!

    • Given that wave 4 was at SPX 2001, then at 2035 wave 5 is 0.71x wavev 1 (1821->1869). This is not a fib relationship… Hence I prefer 2048: 2001+48. Then 5=1 and we’ve hit the 1.382x extension of Primary I, measured from II.

      • Hi Soul, if we draw a megaphone pattern, then it should reach 2050 as the top… in line with your call…. else if 1.682 x relationship, max is 2080…. either way, it’s almost done with the top… thx

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