SPX update : why 2040 is next and maybe it for Primary III

Two days ago I already showed that the technicals pointed towards higher highs. That was correct, the FOMC minutes did nothing, and clearly there is more upside to be had. So what’s next!? IMHO SPX 2040 is next. Why? Well, first, for this analyzes I had to redo my entire charts based on the alternate count I presented almost a month ago and that count has now with the current price action become my preferred count.


  1. please see chart below and compare the august set up with the current set up. “you are here” simple means more upside. (click to chart enlarge)

SPX update 10302014


2. the 1.382x extension of blue primary I, 666 to 1370, measured from Primary II, 1075,  is at 2048

3.the 4.000x extension of yellow major [1], 1075 to 1293, measured from Major [2], 1159, is at 2031

4. the 3.000x extension of red intermediate (i), 1159 to 1422 from (ii), 1267, is at 2056.

Note how price hit the 1.618x extension of (i) for (iii) almost perfectly (1689 vs 1693).

SPX update 10302014b

Hence, there is nice Fib confluence and resistance in the 2040 zone, +/- 10 points.

Fourth, the 80/20 rule suggests that the recent trade THROUGH 1980 will lead to the next higher 20s, in this case 2020. From there it’s a easy shot to 2040.

Fifth, this relentless up wave, without any significant pullback has all the hallmarks of a barely subdividing 5th wave/blow off top.

Last but not least, please recall the essay I posted 2 months ago where I suggested that 2040ish would be the preferred target for P-III. However, the path I presented for it was wrong, but I do think we’ll get there!

With all this in mind I think 2040 is a very good target.


13 thoughts on “SPX update : why 2040 is next and maybe it for Primary III

  1. Hi Soul, thank you for your thoughts. This website is certainly worthy of considerations! Regarding Elliott Wave count – you still see Primary III ending here, or maybe extending? I don’t know if you use/follow indicators of Tom DeMark – but his Sequential and Combo indicators are firing sells across timeframes. Best regards and Happy Thanksgiving!

    • Hi Dan, welcome and thanks for your kind words. Note thar there are only a few more days left until the $5 for the 1st month expires… Yes, an eminent P-III top is still my prefered count. I don’t follow Tom that much, but I agree that it is better to be a seller than a buyer at current levels.

      Happy Thanksgiving!! And I hope you will be an I.I. Member soon 🙂

  2. 努力とか理解できないとかのくだらない茶番はどうでもいい。

  3. Soul, I don’t know if you count since 2011 at spx:1074 is right, but I do know a P3 sized topping pattern that started in July at spx:1991 is nearly complete. 1778/2482 sounds good to me.

      • Hi Soul

        A megaphone is one of 2 change of trend patterns used by Alan Andrews, who developed the Andrews pitchfork.

        A megaphone forms after a long uptrend. 1. A higher high 2. A higher low 3. A higher high 4. A lower low 5. A higher high that tops out at the resistance trend line drawn from 1 and 3.

        So for the spx: 1. 1994, 2. 1904, 3. 2019, 4. 1820, 5. =2040ish? The Dow, Transports and the Comp all have the same pattern nearly complete too.

    • Soul,

      Quick note. I have absolutely nothing against you and I apologize that my comments came across to you as negative.

      • Hi joe, thanks for your honest reply! Much appreciated. I have nothing against you either. Emotion’s have run high lately and unfortunately on Tony’s blog. Hence, why i haven’t posted much there; waiting for the storm to die down. Also why I.I. is mainly paid: people that pay are serious. I.I. gets zero bad emails, posts, comments. All are purely technical, market and ticker related. We focus on making money and nailing our trades. Something to consider!? Aloha, soul

  4. Soulsurfer, I have been a long time stalker of TC’s blog. I have been very appreciative of your comments there and now on your new blog. I am an amateur, just reading and learning and with limited understanding of the price relationships to wave lengths and Fibonacci pivots. But just visualizing this bull market since 3/9/09, I have always found it visually appealing to count as follows: P1 ending around 4/23/10, P2 around 7/2/10, Major 1 of P3 around 4/29/11, Major 2 around 10/3/11, Int 1 of M3 of P3 around 10/14/12, Int 2 around 11/15/12, Minor 1 of Int 3 around 5/21/13, Minor 2 around 6/24/13, Minor 3 around 1/15/14, Minor 4 around 2/3/14, and Minor 5/Int 3 around at recant ATH in Sept 2014, with Int 4 at October low and Int 5 of Major 3 of P3 to complete soon. I don’t have any delusion that my amateur observations are worthwhile for comment, but if you can explain the dismissal of such a count reasonably quickly, your knowledge would be greatly appreciated. Best Regards.

    • Hi MidWest,

      Welcome and thanks for your comment and feedback. Yes, it is possible this is only intermediate iv of Major 3 up. Regardless IMHO the price targets remain the same with a possible upside of SPX 2080s using a v=i relationship. Question is the DOW, it made a lower low in early October last year, while the other indices made a higher low. So for the DOW that can’t be a 2nd wave. It made 5 waves up off the June 2013 low in to the early August 2013 high. Then it dropped and made a new high in September 2013 high. Question is if that was then part of a larger 4th wave (flat) for minor 4, or if that was a minor 3 high, intermediate iii high and then an intermediate iv low… That’s the decisive difference. The rest is rather easy to count. I prefer major 3,4,5 also because we had an ED on the DOW and it seems to fit better on a major scale than intermediate.

      Again thanks for sharing your thoughts. We’ll know in due time which count was eventually correct.


      That would still bring Major 4 down to high 1700s though IMHO.

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