The NYSE counts well as having completed 5 major waves (black, bold), which can count as Primary III. Note the negative divergences over the longer time-scale (since late 2013 on the RSI5 and since early 2013 on the MACD) and also negative divergence on a shorter time-frame (since June 2014). Also of note is that despite a new ATH, the weekly-MACD has not given a buy cross-over yet.
Divergence is of occurs only divergence till it is not anymore, and this week’s high could also be counted as a smaller degree 1st wave, which means that intermediate v will extend much, much more. Staying closer to home, the move of the August low counts as having completed 5 waves up, but it can add 1 more wave if it wants too. IF, that’s the case then the following decline is either a smaller degree 2nd wave (in the case of intermediate v extending) or Primary IV. A break below the August low confirms Primary III and that Primary IV is in. A retrace and then new ATHs means the extension is under-way. Pretty simple. Regardless of either count (Primary III vs smaller degree 1st wave), a retrace is on the order rather sooner than later.